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hokers
-5th August 2008, 15:38
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/olympics/2008/08/the_olympic_projection_game.html

Luciano Barra is a guy who analyses past results and predicts Olympic medals. He thinks GBR will be 4th on the medal table which is nice, but doesn't anticipate a medal in fencing for us.

Which I guess just means there is less pressure of expectation on our fencers?

pigeonmeister
-5th August 2008, 15:51
I think Barra is being optimistic if he thinks we will be 4th- but here's hoping. I believe he comes by his figures by looking at recent world championships results- so hardly surprising he hasn't projected any medals. After all, RK is, I think, likely to get the number 1 or 2 seed in the L16 and Alex is dead last seed. I could, of course, be wrong about those seedings...

fencingmaster
-5th August 2008, 16:02
Expert Luciano Barra had a 40% error predicting Athens results
"In his final prediction before the 2004 Athens Games, he underestimated the eventual U.S. medal haul by 30" (they got 102)
http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/20071219108940/sports/wire-sports/u.s.-will-top-china-in-beijing-medal-count-says-italian-olympic-official.html

I also found this quote
""I indicate 48 medals for Britain - it does not mean they will win 48, they could win less or more," Barra told BBC Sport."
...and that is a 100% certain!

Baldric
-5th August 2008, 16:06
Well, if projections could be relied upon, there wouldn't be much point in holding the games!

Maybe thats an option for 2020 - never mind spending $mega-billions on a stadium, athletes village etc - just bung a few quid to a handful of pundits, and let them work out the winners!

Etoile Argent
-5th August 2008, 16:17
Bet he didn't predict Baldini (ouch!)

Swords Crossed
-5th August 2008, 16:23
Bet he didn't predict Baldini (ouch!)

meow.:whistle:

Gav
-5th August 2008, 22:53
Expert Luciano Barra had a 40% error predicting Athens results
"In his final prediction before the 2004 Athens Games, he underestimated the eventual U.S. medal haul by 30" (they got 102)
http://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/20071219108940/sports/wire-sports/u.s.-will-top-china-in-beijing-medal-count-says-italian-olympic-official.html

I also found this quote
""I indicate 48 medals for Britain - it does not mean they will win 48, they could win less or more," Barra told BBC Sport."
...and that is a 100% certain!

40%!!!!!???

In that case he talks rubbish.

Marcos
-6th August 2008, 10:19
40%!!!!!???

In that case he talks rubbish.

it's got people talking about it though...80% of what Gary Linekar and Alan Shearer said during Euro '08 was rubbish too...but that is their job - to create debate/arguement/frustration !

I think most people in the know realise that the achievement for GBR (and IRL) fencers was qualification.

but anything can happen!

AussieMongrel
-6th August 2008, 11:45
For GBR to finish 4th they will have to place above Aus which by Medal to population is the most successful country ever. http://www.smh.com.au/olympics/medaltally/

Looking at those figures does anyone really believe that in 4 years of finally putting some money in to drastically under funded sporting institutions that there is going to be a massive turn around?

I hope that GBR does well but I think many more years, a lot more money and improvements to identifying young talent and nurturing that talent across the board is needed.

Insipiens
-6th August 2008, 12:00
40%!!!!!???

In that case he talks rubbish.
I believe he did predict the medal table placing accurately for each position down to 10 at Athens.

Slowhand
-6th August 2008, 12:30
I believe he did predict the medal table placing accurately for each position down to 10 at Athens.

Not so:

Projection Actual
1 USA 1 USA
2 Russia 2 China
3 China 3 Russia
4 Germany 4 Australia
5 Australia 5 Japan
6 Japan 6 Germany
7 Korea 7 France
8 France 8 Italy
9 Ukraine 9 Korea
10 Great Britain 10 Great Britain

See BBC website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/olympics/team_gb/7534962.stm

AussieMongrel
-6th August 2008, 14:23
Game on....

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/beijing_olympics/story/0,27313,24138334-5014104,00.html

fencingmaster
-6th August 2008, 16:28
"Ms Ellis is challenging British Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe to a bet after his government declared that Britain would beat Australia in the Olympic medal tally in Beijing."
she should challenge him to a duel...then we can make it a real Olympic event ....politician bashing!

pigeonmeister
-26th August 2008, 16:52
I would just like to say that I never, for a second, questioned Mr Barra's prediction that we would be 4th on the medal table. ;)

JohnL
-26th August 2008, 17:13
I would just like to say that I never, for a second, questioned Mr Barra's prediction that we would be 4th on the medal table. ;)

Never mind Barra.

I'd just like to take time out to congratulate the Australians on their performance at the Olympics. I thought their 14 Gold medals (britain 19), 46 Total Medals (Britain 47) and their 6th place ranking (Britain 4th) was really quite a good showing.

Very well done guys!

:) :) :)