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View Full Version : So Who would you have picked? and WHY?



Mr WFFC
-1st June 2012, 09:36
Now that at least some of the Olympic wild card selections have been made public I thought we all might like to post our own selections. Obviously Richard Kruse and Natalia Sheppard are in as qualified fencers.

I'm off to double check the selection criteria before posting my selections.:whistle:

Paul N-M
-1st June 2012, 11:32
Now that at least some of the Olympic wild card selections have been made public I thought we all might like to post our own selections. Obviously Richard Kruse and Natalia Sheppard are in as qualified fencers.

I'm off to double check the selection criteria before posting my selections.:whistle:

Lorraine,
I'm so sickenned by the women's sabre selection I for one have no enthusiasm for this game.
Paul N-M

Paul N-M
-1st June 2012, 11:33
Lorraine,
I'm so sickenned by the women's sabre selection I for one have no enthusiasm for this game.
Paul N-M

Sorry Ken!!!!

Mr WFFC
-1st June 2012, 11:37
OK so how do we start.

Ideally we need a strategy. GB does not have any fencers likely to win a medals, but we do have some with a small chance if they get really "hot" on the day and have that little bit of good fortune.

My strategy has been to get as many of these as possible into the team. Youth and potential to perform at 2016 and beyond has also been considered, but given less weight.

First a list of teams & fencers who meet the standard set out in the selection criteria. I am hampered by limited information but my best guess is.

Men’s Foil Team
Ladies Foil Team

James Davis
Lawrence Halstead

Corinna Lawrence

Jon Willis (I think Jon was in world top 50 early in the required period)

Chrystal Nichol
Louise Bond-Williams
Jo Hutchison (I think I’m right about Jo meeting at least one of the two criteria and she is now in the top 50)
Sophie Williams (I assume Sophie also meets the criteria by being in the top 45 of the world rankings after ineligible fencers are removed)

OK so first selection problem is do we select a MF team and a WF team? I would select a MF team but NOT a WF team. This may be harsh, and I would expect appeals, but IMO the WF team has such a small chance of winning a medal as to not merit selection. The fact that they would take up two wild card places is a key point to remember.

The second selection problem is that we can only select two out of four for women’s sabre. My analysis of the results (constrained by limited information) is that L B-W, JH and CN all have significantly better results/rankings than SW. My choices would be CN and JH. Both are 26 this year so still have the potential to improve and possibly qualify for 2016. I would want to talk to both about whether they will continue to 2016 and might reconsider if they indicated that they plan to retire from international fencing.

The third problem is Lawrence Halstead (nothing personal Lawrence). I believe he was injured for a time this year and this has limited his points scoring opportunities. I would still select him on the basis of his European senior medal and previously high world ranking. Once again I would expect an appeal from one or two who are omitted.

The fourth problem is Jon Willis (again nothing personal Jon). Jon hasn't been able to match the amazing Heidenheim win of a few years ago. As a result he is on a downward trajectory. However he did it once so maybe, just maybe he could do it again. As far as I can tell no one has worked harder or sacrificed more for the opportunity. So I would select him.

James and Corinna gave me no problems. They are both young, improving and meet the qualifying criteria.

OK so I have made 6 selections from the fencers/teams that meet the qualifying standard.

James Davis, Lawrence Halstead, Corinna Lawrence, Jo Hutchison and Chrystal Nichol, Jon Willis

That leaves two places to fill. Reading the criteria these can only be given to fencers with potential to perform at future Olympics as well as 2012.

I would give one of these to James Honeybone. He has a decent world ranking, is young and is on a clear upward trajectory (to use the current buzz phrase). He is a definite 2016 prospect.

The final place was the most difficult to decide. To my mind there are two candidates. Alex O’Connell and Philip Marsh. Both are young enough to be around and improved fencers in 2016. Both are former world age group champions. I would choose Philip on the basis that his world junior win was more recent. My concern is that he is still so very young, but I finally decided to adopt the “if you are good enough you are old enough” approach. Once again I would expect an appeal.



So my 8 wild card nominations would be:


James Davis
Lawrence Halstead

Corinna Lawrence

Jo Hutchison
Chrystal Nichol

James Honeybone

Jon Willis
Philip Marsh


Before you all go on the attack, please remember this was done with limited information while I was eating my lunch today. If I had been a real selector I would have wanted much more information and time !

hokers
-1st June 2012, 11:45
Before you all go on the attack, please remember this was done with limited information while I was eating my lunch today. If I had been a real selector I would have wanted much more information and time !

But who would you have had select/prepare/present that information for you?

What if that meant that the statistics presented could show a completely different picture to if they were presented another way?

Mr WFFC
-1st June 2012, 11:51
But who would you have had select/prepare/present that information for you?

What if that meant that the statistics presented could show a completely different picture to if they were presented another way?

Good question!

I would hope that all the National Weapon Coaches and the Performance Manager/Director would keep all the performance data on all the athletes competing at senior international level.

I would prefer someone independent and well qualified to compile any statistical analysis.

As a research biologist by trade I would hope I could pick my way through any presentation of statistics about fencing performance.:p

Fencer91
-1st June 2012, 13:00
Can i ask do people honestly really think Halstead is still a better fencer than other top mens foilests? Those medals are over 4 years old and since then all he has achieved is one last 8. He barely produces any results. And you can't justify giving someone a place when they have been injured all season on the basis of past talent its not fair. Kenber on the other hand is THE MOST consistent British fencer there is, losing in the rounds that he does usually to top 10 world ranked fencers very closely. Halstead should not be going to 2012 even as the team reserve which I am under the impression he is.

Foilling Around
-1st June 2012, 18:42
Kruse
Davis (genuine form fencer and prospect)
Kenber
Res: Rosowsky
Could be persuaded to swap JK and HR as HR is a better future prospect for me)

Shepherd

Nicoll (world ranking since 2008/9 consistently above LBW)
Hutchinson (form fencer)

Lawrence

Willis

Honeybone
O'Connell

Marsh is a prospect for 2016 to qualify and 2020 for a medal: too early for 2012

DSSabre
-1st June 2012, 19:09
Need to stop agreeing with people but believe Paul has got it right on this one.

DS

riposteinprime
-1st June 2012, 19:20
BF board minutes suggest HR is planning to fence for Egypt post-2012

cesh_fencing
-1st June 2012, 21:22
Kruse
Davis (genuine form fencer and prospect)
Kenber
Res: Rosowsky
Could be persuaded to swap JK and HR as HR is a better future prospect for me)

Shepherd

Nicoll (world ranking since 2008/9 consistently above LBW)
Hutchinson (form fencer)

Lawrence

Willis

Honeybone
O'Connell

Marsh is a prospect for 2016 to qualify and 2020 for a medal: too early for 2012

Have to agree with FA here. This is the obvious set of choices.

Anyway, for all those that end up going I do wish you all the best, it is not your fault that BF selection has been so widely critisized and I will be following GBR in the fencing and wishing all of you every piece of luck you can get hold of.

As a side-point, well done to GBR Pentathletes with 2 men reaching automatic qualifying standard and 4 women with 2 spots in each event up for grabs. Guess Pent GB will have an easier choice as I think medalling at the recent worlds was the decider for selection so with 2 medals selection won there should not be so difficult choices. Really bad luck to the girls who qualified and did not get a place.

cesh_fencing
-1st June 2012, 21:54
Re-writing end of last post to make it read a bit better.

As a side-point, well done to GBR Pentathletes with 2 men reaching automatic qualifying standard and 4 women with 2 spots in each event up for grabs.

Guess Pent GB will have an easier choice, as I think medalling at the recent worlds was the decider for selection. So with 2 medals won at that event for GBR women, there should not be any appeals.

Really bad luck to the girls who qualified and did not get a place.

riposteinprime
-1st June 2012, 21:56
BF board minutes suggest HR is planning to fence for Egypt post-2012

Apparently this is no longer the case - we shall see post games. Obvious Husayn is the best man to make that decision.

DSSabre
-2nd June 2012, 14:05
Having thought about this a but more i want to look at the rationale behind the decisions to take athletes and encourage a broader discussion on the merits of projected potential or trajectories etc.

Looking at the recent statement from our PM here are several questions that come to mind:

First of all there is a statement concerning the data that was sent to the Olympic selectors being ratified by all the athletes. I am aware that it was sent round to all the athletes before Bologna for ratification, i am unsure as to whether or not it was sent round a second time after Jo's last 16 in Bologna with corrected data and the previous years Bologna result taken off. I would have assumed it was even though time was short.

As medal potential means making a last 4 even then you have to win one more fight to be guaranteed a medal but more importantly as there is no evidence for that statement. If you have made 8s even 16s in the same season as the Olympics and have a high world ranking you stand some chance of making the 8 at the Olympics and i can see that when you have an athlete on the form of someone like James Davis this is a reasonable assumption. However i have real concerns with the concept that any athlete who is ranked in the top 50 in the World and with one last 32 has medal potential. If you are assuming that they are going to pull it out on the day why not apply that same logic to athletes who have done that in the past such as Jon Willis for Men's Epee.

We then get on to the statement "but crucially are on a trajectory to qualify and perform in Rio 2016"

Corinna Lawrence ha shown again the potential with a last 16 at the world championships and on that result alone should be given a chance in London and hopefully given the right support and funding she will continue in the sport and go on to challenge for a place in Rio.

Lets be serious though for a few minutes are we actually now saying that athletes who have only made last 64s this season are now on course for qualification for Rio?? There will be no host nation places in Rio so athletes will either have to qualify as part of a team or off the adjusted world rankings or via the zonal qualification slot. I'm sorry but i don't think you can in all honesty say that last 64s in 2012 equal qualification in 2016. I don't think you can even say they are on trajectory to qualify: Chrystall Nicoll in 2008 had 3 last 32s and she didn't qualify for 2012.

Then we select a WFT who do not have a team event in 2016 with the expectation that they will make the top 8 out of 9 teams. The rationale behind this is to say the least a little strange. We are not saying they are a medal potential because they're not and yet were also not using the future potential as there is no team in 2016. I am glad they have not lost a match to a lower ranked team but there are unlikely to be any lower ranked teams for them to fence in the Olympics.

I would have selected the following the top 6 ranked fencers off the FIE rankings on the 1st June excluding those already qualified (i know this is moving the selection date back but its my selection so i can) also i don't have the data for 9th May.

This would have given:

WE Corinna Lawrence
WF Emanuel & Bentley
MS James Honeybone
WS Hutchison & Nicoll
MF Davis & Kember

The PM and her PMT i feel still have lots of questions to answers does the CEO. I am not sure that not knowing the sport is a good enough excuse any longer. We were told when the results were bad in Sheffield that she had not had enough time. I don't remember the results in Catania being any better yet she is still here.

We will all see when 2016 comes around who has made it and who hasn't. In the short term i am sure we will all be cheering on those that have been selected for 2012. The athletes have done nothing wrong and deserve our full support.

DS

jimcrawfurd
-2nd June 2012, 21:00
Good post David, but one interesting incongruity:
You make the point that you wouldn't have selected a WF team, but by picking Martina and Anna, in addition to Natalia, you have accidentally picked... a WF team.
You clearly have the makings of a future BF performance manager :)
Jim x

DSSabre
-2nd June 2012, 21:44
Jim,

I realized that. To be clear I wouldn't have selected a WFT on the merits of a team deserving to go as they had qualified to do so. I don't believe that to be the case. Also by selecting individuals in the way I have it did make up a women's foil team. A happy consequence but it may have been that only two women's foilists made the cut.

If JW or AO'C had had higher rankings there wouldn't have been a WFT. Will be interesting to see who will be picked to fill the remaining places. Perhaps we will go with the young foil fencers with future potential lets see!!

DS